An Uncertainty Approach to Modelling Climate Change Risk in South Africa Arndt, Channing / Cullis, James / Alton, Theresa

Schlagwörter: Südafrika, Klimawandel, Modelle, Szenarien, Infrastruktur, Wirtschaft, Anpassung

Keywords: South Africa, Climate Change, Models, Scenarios, Infrastructure, Economy, Adaptation, Mitigation.

Weblink:

https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/uncertainty-approach-modelling-climate-change-risk-south-africa

Abstract:

This study represents the first attempt at an integrated approach to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the national economy of South Africa via a number of (but not necessarily all) impact channels. The study focuses on outcomes by about 2050. The results show the multiple impacts of climate change and the importance of spatial and temporal variation in these impacts. The study focused in particular on the potential impacts of climate change on the water supply sector, dry-land agriculture, hydropower, roads infrastructure costs and sea level rise. These factors have not been previously considered in a fully integrated way for South Africa. The study considers two future global emissions scenarios-- an Unconstrained Emission Scenario (UCE) where global policies to reduce emissions fail to materialize and a Level 1 Stabilization Scenario (L1S) where aggressive emissions policies are pursued.