Actual & Projected Impacts of CC

Actual & Projected Impacts of CC
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Schlagwörter: Südafrika, Klimawandel, Modelle, Szenarien, Infrastruktur, Wirtschaft, Anpassung

Keywords: South Africa, Climate Change, Models, Scenarios, Infrastructure, Economy, Adaptation, Mitigation.

Weblink:

https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/uncertainty-approach-modelling-climate-change-risk-south-africa

https://www.wider.unu.edu/sites/default/files/WP2015-045-.pdf

Abstract:

This study represents the first attempt at an integrated approach to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on the national economy of South Africa via a number of (but not necessarily all) impact channels. The study focuses on outcomes by about 2050. The results show the multiple impacts of climate change and the importance of spatial and temporal variation in these impacts. The study focused in particular on the potential impacts of climate change on the water supply sector, dry-land agriculture, hydropower, roads infrastructure costs and sea level rise. These factors have not been previously considered in a fully integrated way for South Africa. The study considers two future global emissions scenarios-- an Unconstrained Emission Scenario (UCE) where global policies to reduce emissions fail to materialize and a Level 1 Stabilization Scenario (L1S) where aggressive emissions policies are pursued.  

Keywords: Madagascar, climate change, climate policy, agriculture, climate finance

Schlagwörter: Madagaskar, Klimawandel, Klimapolitik, Landwirtschaft, Klimafinanzierung

Weblink:

http://ecdpm.org/publications/making-agriculture-africa-climate-smart/

See also the infographic:

http://ecdpm.org/multimedia/infographic-making-agriculture-africa-climate-smart/

Schlagwörter: Mauritius, Klimawandel, Ernährungssicherung, Landwirtschaft, Wetteranalysen

Keywords: Mauritius, climate change, food security, agriculture, weather metrics

Weblink:

http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-12-2012-0079
http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/IJCCSM-12-2012-0079

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to delve into an extensive analysis of different food crops, ranging from bananas, beans, brinjals, cabbages, chillies, creepers, groundnuts, mixed vegetables, pineapples and tomatoes, over three decades. To maintain an ever-increasing population level, much stress is exerted on the production of food crops. However, till date, very little is known about how climate change is influencing the production of food crops in Mauritius, an upper-income developing country found in the Indian Ocean and highly vulnerable to climate risks. Based on the interactions between production of crops, harvest area for crops and weather metrics, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) system is applied comprising production of each crop with their respective harvest area. Weather metrics are then entered into as exogeneous components of the model.

The underlying rationale is that weather metrics are not caused by production or harvest area and should thereby be exogeneously treated. Should there be cointegration between the endogenous components, the vector error correction model (VECM) will be used. Diagnostic tests will also be entertained in terms of ensuring the endogeneity states of the presumed variables under investigation. The impact of harvest area on product is plain, as higher the harvest area, the higher is the production. However, a bi-directional causality can also manifest in the case that higher production leads towards lower harvest area in the next period as land is being made to rest to restore its nutrients to enable stable land productivity over time. Other dynamics could also be present. In case cointegration prevails, VECM will be used as the econometric model.

The VAR/VECM approach is applied by virtue of the fact that traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation approach will be biased and susceptible to trigger off unreliable results. Results show weather metrics do influence the production of crops in Mauritius, with cyclone being particularly harmful for tomatoes, chillies and creepers. Temperature is found to trail behind bearish impacts on tomatoes and cabbages production, but positive impacts in case of bananas, brinjals and pineapples productions, whereas humidity enhances production of beans, creepers and groundnuts. Evidence is found in favour of production being mainly governed by harvest area. Overall, the study points out the need of weather derivatives in view of hedging against crop damages, let alone initiation of adaptation strategies to undermine the adverse effects of climate change.  

Schlagwörter: Namibia, Klimawandel, Anpassung, Gemeindeebene, Partizipation, Planung, Landwirtschaft, peri-urban, Politik

Keywords: Namibia, climate change, adapation, community, participatory planning, agriculture, peri-urban, politics

Weblinks:

http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/17568691311327604
http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/17568691311327604

Abstract:

This community based initiative seeks to increase communities’ adaptive capacity through the development of resilient farming practices and improved natural resource management in the face of climate change. Integrating the basic aspects on climate information, the project toolkit had two main objectives; firstly it increases community awareness about climate change risks to farmers and natural resource users, and secondly it aims to build momentum at community levels for innovative adaptation tools as applicable to their environments. These toolkits are applicable to the rural communities, periurban and communities across Namibia.Participatory rural appraisal methods were used to solicit inputs from the local people during the toolkits development process. Resource mapping, root analysis of climate impacts, and gender mainstreaming were key to this project. A total of 30 community consultations were held in 12 constituencies in all the regions. About 200 people per region were consulted. Their selection was based on their day to day engagement with community members – these included community activists, farmers, local NGOs as well as governmental civil servants and resource users.The main outcomes of the project were the compilation of the climate change toolkits, as well as outreach materials such as a video for training of trainers events on climate change adaptation, posters, and radio talks in the different regions. The toolkits are in the process of being implemented, and there are positive reports from the regions where they have been distributed. This paper is a synopsis of the experiences from Namibia's climate change adaptation toolkits and offers insights relevant to many other African countries, and how these can be improved to make climate change adaptation work especially in the rural areas.

Schlagwörter: Lesotho, Klimawandel, Anpassung, Landwirtschaft, Livelihoods, Haushalte

Keywords: Lesotho, climate change, adapatation, agriculture, livelihoods, households

Weblinks:

http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-06-2012-0034
http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/IJCCSM-06-2012-0034

Abstract:

This study was conducted to assess the socio-economic implications of climate change on the three ecological regions of Lesotho. In the view that climate change is affecting agriculture, subsistence communities are at risk. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Two villages were randomly selected from three regions of Lesotho and at least 40 households in each region. The full range of economic activities undertaken was covered to understand how climate affects the communities, and how they are. A livelihood sensitivity matrix was used to determine which resources and livelihoods are most vulnerable to different types of climatic hazards and how the different livelihood activities are impacted by different climate hazards. A large percentage of the community (>95 percent) was aware of the changing climate and the effects on land productivity. Food crops are the most vulnerable to weather, followed by soil and livestock. Climate variables of major concern were hail, drought and dry spells which reduced crop yields. This research is important especially to policy makers to make informed decisions in as far as climate change response strategies in Lesotho are concerned. This research thus gives a baseline on these climate change impacts on subsistence communities.

Schlagwörter: Simabwe, Klimawandel, Sambesital, Fischerei, Landwirtschaft, Dürre, Flut, Migration, Umweltgesetze

Keywords: Zimbabwe, climate change, Zambezi Valley, fishing, agriculture, drought, flood, houesholds, migration, environmental law

Weblink:

http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2013-0016
http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/IJCCSM-03-2013-0016

 

Schlagworte: Südafrika, Klimawandel, Landwirtschaft, Ernährungssicherung

Keywords: South Africa, Climate Change, Agriculture, Food Security

Weblink:

http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-12
http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-12/file

Abstract:

The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and priced for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM runs were those undertaken for the IPCC fourth assessment report. They show consistent strong warming over the subcontinent, but disagree with respect to future precipitation, from slight wetting (particularly on the eastern side) to overall slight drying. The future crop yields were simulated using the DSSAT crop model suite. The planted area, commodity prices and net exports were simulated using the IMPACT global food trade model.

Keywords: Tanzania, climate change, Morogoro, agriculture, rainfall, adaptation, climate policy

Schlagwörter: Tansania, Klimawandel, Morogoro, Landwirtschaft, Regen, Anpassung, Klimapolitik

Weblink:

http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/abs/10.1108/IJCCSM-12-2012-0072
http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-12-2012-0072

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to investigate climate change perceptions and adaptation strategies in the communities of Morogoro region of Tanzania. Climate change is a vital issue of global concern. Rain fall data trends collected from different meteorological stations in the region were useful in assessment of climate variability and change trends from the historical perspective. In addition, quantitative interviews, surveys and focussed discussion groups were used to collect data capturing past and present trends in the catchment, and reasons provided by 199 respondents from a total of six villages.

The data were collected with the aid of trained research assistants and trained graduates selected from each of the randomly select villages. Significant differences in rainfall intensities have been recorded by use of feedback results from analysis of variance tests conducted. Major indicators of climate variability and change include: increased dry spells (39.7 per cent), drying of rivers (34.7 per cent), a reduction in water flows (14.6 per cent) and poor economy of the area (11.1 per cent). The scope of the study does not cover certain aspects such as the spatial and temporal changes in daily temperature which could have provided important and additional dimension. This study also did not take into consideration institutional arrangements required to successfully implement national adaptation programmes to climate change. Finally, it is important to remember that peoples’ perceptions determine the social mental picture of climate change. The study suggests the need for leverage on resource use through education and good governance strategies to be employed by resource planners, leaders and policy makers.

Schlagwörter: Südafrika, Klimawandel, Landwirtschaft, Wirtschaft, Tourismus, Gesundheit, Wasser, Flüsse, Ökosystem

Keywords: South Africa, Climate Change, Agriculture, Economy, Tourism, Health, Water, Rivers, Ecosystem

Weblinks:

https://open.uct.ac.za/handle/11427/16707?show=full
http://www.eldis.org/go/home&id=11760&type=Document#.V9RMcBKfdqA

Abstract:

This paper attempts to provide preliminary estimates based on secondary data from the findings of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Study for the South African Country Study on Climate Change (1999). The impacts on natural, agricultural, human-made and human capital are addressed using the change in production approach. This study aimed to provide a preliminary desktop estimate of the economic impacts of climate change in South Africa, based on the findings of the Vulnerability and Adaptation Study for the South African Country Study on Climate Change (1999). Damages are those predicted for 2050 and are valued in year 2000 rands, unless otherwise stated. Predicted impacts from this study include changes in terrestrial and marine ecosystems which will have profound impacts on agriculture, forestry, rangelands and fisheries, as well as on biodiversity.

In addition, changes in hydrology may have immense consequences in terms of human health by increasing suitable habitat for waterborne diseases, as well as affecting water supply and the maintenance of ecosystem functioning. Prediction of the economic impacts of climate change is particularly difficult because of the global scale of the impacts and the long time horizon involved. Such studies have mostly been carried out in developed countries, and often only concentrate on market impacts such as agriculture. Impacts are typically divided into market and non-market impacts, with ecosystem and health damages relegated to the latter category, but this study recognises that all impacts have their basis in changes to natural systems, and that all types of impacts have both market and non-market components.

 

Schlagwörter:

Südafrika, Klimawandel, Infrastruktur, Klimawandel Szenarien, Klimafinanzen.

Keywords:

South Africa, climate change, infrastructure, scenarios, climate finance.

Weblink:

https://www.wider.unu.edu/publication/infrastructure-and-climate-change-1

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of the current study on the impact of climate change on the road and building infrastructure within South Africa. The approach builds upon previous work associated with the UNU-WIDER Development under Climate Change effort emphasizing the impact of climate change on roads. The paper illustrates how climate change effects on both road and building structures can be evaluated with the application of a new analysis system—the infrastructure planning support system. The results of the study indicate that the national level climate change cost impact in South Africa will vary between US$141.0 million average annual costs in the median climate scenario under an adaptation policy, and US$210.0 million average annual costs under a no adaptation scenario. Similarly, the costs will vary between US$457.0 million average annual costs in the maximum climate scenario under an adaptation policy scenario, and US$522.0 million average annual costs under a no adaptation scenario.

Schlagwörter: SÜDAFRIKA; KLIMAWANDEL; REGENFÄLLE; WASSER; LANDWIRTSCHAFT; WIRTSCHAFT

Keywords: South Africa, climate change, rainfall, water, agriculture, economy

Weblink:

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/265074602_CLIMATE_CHANGE_AND_SOUTH_AFRICAN_AGRICULTURE_IMPACTS_AND_ADAPTATION_OPTIONS

Abstract:

Statistical evidence suggests that South Africa has been getting hotter over the past four decades, with average yearly temperatures increasing by 0.13°C a decade between 1960 and 2003, with relatively higher levels for the fall, winter and summer periods. There has also been an increase in the number of warmer days and a decrease in the number of cooler days. Moreover, the average rainfall in the country is very low, estimated at 450mm per year – well below the world’s average of 860mm per year – while evaporation is comparatively high. In addition, surface and underground water are very limited, with more than 50% of the available water resources being used for only 10% of the country’s agricultural activities. Climate change, which may make temperatures climb and reduce the rains and change their timing, may therefore put more pressure on the country’s scarce water resources, with implications for agriculture, employment and food security.

Keywords: South Africa, climate change, economy, tourism

Schlagwörter: Südafrika, Klimawandel, Wirtschaft, Tourismus

Weblink:

http://lec.sagepub.com/content/31/1-2/322.abstract

Abstract:

Climate change is a major factor impacting upon local economic development futures. South Africa is one of the most vulnerable parts of the world in terms of projected climate change. This article examines issues around climate change impacts for South Africa’s tourism sector and in particular implications for local economic development. It is argued that, whilst tourism represents one of the main drivers of local economic development in small towns and peripheral areas, as a result of capacity and financial constraints municipalities often struggle to undertake effective tourism planning. Accordingly, capacity building for tourism practitioners and policy makers around climate change must become an essential component of the roll out of government tourism support programming to enable South African local governments to manage and sustain partnerships with the private sector, to ensure a deeper understanding of how municipalities can manage the tourism assets within their areas, and to maximise the opportunities of tourism for local economic development.