MOZAMBIQUE - a comprehensive Analysis (Genito A. Maure, Timothy S. Thomas, Sepo Hachigonta, Lindiwe Majele Sibanda)

The results from running the DSSAT crop model were used as input for the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), which computes global agricultural commodity prices and output by country and region. IMPACT was run with four climate model and scenario combinations. In addition to agricultural predictions, IMPACT also produces scenarios of the number of malnourished children under the age of five, as well as the available kilocalories per capita. All scenarios show a moderate increase in the number of malnourished children from 2010 to 2025 and reductions thereafter, with sharper reductions in the optimistic and baseline scenarios. The production and yield of cassava are shown increasing slowly to 2025 and then declining slightly. The flatlining and eventual decline of the production and yield of cassava drive a decline in net exports: net exports of cassava are shown increasing slightly to 2015, followed by a reduction to 2050, and finally becoming negative. Because cassava is one of the main crops consumed in the country, efforts should be made to develop alternative food sources or improved cassava varieties that are adapted to the changing climate. In the context of low incomes, increased population pressure on natural systems, and a weak road network, the stress on agriculture in the country poses a potentially severe problem. Under these circumstances, the need to implement the NAPA for agriculture is urgent. The highest priority must be given to the objective “Strengthen capacities of agricultural producers to cope with climate change.”

in: IFPRI (ed.): Southern African Agriculture and Climate Change: A comprehensive analysis. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Chapter 6, Washington, D.C. 2013, pp. 147-173.

Copyright: IFPRI, Washington D.C.

Weblink: http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/127789

 

Created Date: 19-10-2015
Last Updated Date: 30-11-2015
License: Link only