Climate uncertainty and economic development, Evaluating the case of Mozambique to 2050 (Channing Arndt and James Thurlow)

We apply a probabilistic approach to the evaluation of climate change impacts in the Zambezi River Valley. The economic modeling relies on an economywide modeling approach. Taking a distribution of shocks as inputs, we create hybrid frequency distributions of the potential economic impacts of climate change for Mozambique. The approach identifies an explicit range of potential outcomes and associates a probability with given sets of outcomes. For example, we find that the economy of Mozambique may be up to 13% smaller in 2050 due to the effects of climate change. However, the chance of GDP losses of less than 5% are more than four out of five with about 10% of these outcomes actually positive. Large declines in GDP, defined as a decline greater than 10%, are the result of a dramatic reduction in flood return periods.

WIDER Working Paper No. 2013/042, UN University, Helsinki 2013. And published in: Climate Change, 130, 2015, pp. 63-75. 

Copyright: WIDER, UN-University, Helsinki

Weblinks: DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1294-x

Created Date: 19-10-2015
Last Updated Date: 30-11-2015
License: Link only